Solar energy storage cabinets are cheap in China

Are solar and energy storage prices about to rise?

Solar and storage prices are about to rise after a year and a half of record lows, according to new data from Wood Mackenzie. Equipment procurement costs for solar and energy storage will jump around 9% starting in Q4 2025, marking the end of the bargain pricing developers have enjoyed for the last 18 months.

How will China's Export tax rebate affect the solar industry?

The end of China’s export tax rebate. Starting in Q4 2025, China will scrap its 13% VAT export rebate on solar modules and storage systems. This fiscal change will ripple through global pricing since China supplies over 80% of the world’s solar modules and 90% of lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery packs.

Why are solar & energy storage costs rising in Q4 2025?

Equipment procurement costs for solar and energy storage will jump around 9% starting in Q4 2025, marking the end of the bargain pricing developers have enjoyed for the last 18 months. That’s because China is changing the rules. Wood Mackenzie points to three major drivers behind the coming spike: Polysilicon consolidation.

How will China's policy change affect solar projects in Q4?

That policy shift means developers worldwide will face higher costs. In the US, storage and solar projects relying on Chinese equipment will likely see about a 9% cost increase in Q4. Analysts expect inverters to lose their export rebate soon, too, adding more upward pressure.